Salamander Energy Disappoints With Bedug Gas Discovery

Offshore oil or gas platformSalamander Energy (LON:SMDR) has announced that its Bedug-1 well is a gas discovery, disappointing investors who hoped it would be oil, and sending the firm’s share price down by 17% in today’s trading.

This concludes the firm’s North Kutei basin drilling programme for this year, so let’s sum up what the firm discovered, and what it had hoped to find:

  • South Kecapi-1: Discovered at least 29m of net gas pay, plus 11m of net oil pay, which flow tested at 6,000 bopd. A good result.
  • North Kendang-1: Well had to be suspended for later re-entry after a powerful gas kick damaged equipment and made it unsafe to continue without specialised drilling equipment. It’s a gas discovery, but its potential scale and commerciality is unclear.
  • Bedug-1: Salamander hoped that Bedug-1 would discover mean unrisked prospective resources of 150MMbo and 100Bcf of gas. Today’s news is disappointing, as once again the well could not be drilled to the planned depth because of pressure issues. This means that the potential oil targets were not tested and the scale of the gas discovery is unclear.

What’s next?

Salamander is planning to redrill the North Kendang-1 well with specialised Managed Pressure Drilling equipment, when such equipment can be imported into Indonesia and put together with an available drilling rig.

The firm is evaluating the data from Bedug-1, and this may also be redrilled along with North Kendang-1, as the potential for an oil discovery remains.

In the meantime, Salamander is planning to drill the onshore West Kerendan and Sungai Lahei prospects over the summer, targeting unrisked mean prospective resources of 900Bcf, and is forecasting full-year average production of between 12,500 and 15,500 boepd, a 20%-50% increase on last year’s production.

According to today’s AGM statement, production is currently running at around 18,000 bopd, ahead of budget, thanks to good results from the Bualuang field, which is currently producing around 15,000 bopd. Drilling is about to start on the G4/50 licence offshore Thailand, which Salamander believes is highly prospective.

I think there’s more to come, and Salamander’s strong production-based cash flow this year should deliver solid full-year profits.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for information only and is not intended as investment advice. The author may own shares in the companies mentioned in the article. Do your own research or seek qualified professional advice before making any purchase decisions.

JKX Oil & Gas Faces Shareholder Revolt

Part of JKX Oil & Gas' facilities in Ukraine.

Part of JKX’s facilities in Ukraine.

JKX Oil & Gas (LON:JKX) is facing a shareholder revolt backed by its largest shareholder, Eclairs Group, which is backed by Ukrainian businessman Igor Kolomoisky, and holds 27.55% of JKX’s shares.

Eclairs has published an open letter to JKX shareholders today, calling for them to support Eclairs’ attempt to have JKX chief executive Dr. Paul Davis and Peter Dixon, its commercial director, replaced.

According to some reports, Eclairs already has the backing of JKX’s second-largest shareholder, Glengary Overseas, which holds 11.45% of JKX shares. The two combined wield 39% of the vote, so it is possible that Eclairs Group will succeed.

In the open letter, which was published here, Eclairs highlight the 88% decline in JKX’s share price since 2008 and the fact that production fell from 4.67MMboe in 2007 to 2.8MMboe in 2012. They point out that dividends have been suspended since 2011 and claim that JKX has a “track record of unsatisfactory operational delays, cost over-runs and missed targets”.

In JKX’s defence, I should point out that if the firm can maintain its April production levels, annual production could rise to around 4.2MMboe this year, although much of it is low-priced Russian gas.

Eclairs Group say that they are committed to the future of JKX as an independent listed company, and while they have replacement directors in mind, say they are happy to consider alternative choices.

The AGM takes place on June 5, so we don’t have long to wait until the outcome is known. You can read the full text of the letter here.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for information only and is not intended as investment advice. The author may own shares in the companies mentioned in the article. Do your own research or seek qualified professional advice before making any purchase decisions.

Lochard Energy Sale Suggests 30% Upside For Trap Oil Group

Oil rigs in North SeaThe Parkmead Group (LON:PMG) all-share offer for Lochard Energy (LON:LHD) highlights how cheap Trap Oil Group (LON:TRAP) look at the moment.

Lochard’s only producing asset is its 10% stake in the Athena oil field in the North Sea. Parkmead’s offer for Lochard is worth £14.5m, and presumably includes Lochard’s $17.5m outstanding debt, which is secured on Athena’s production. Most of this will be repaid at the rate of 20% of gross production revenues, which by my reckoning should take around 7-8 months.

Trap Oil has a 15% stake in Athena, providing a crude valuation of £21.75m for this asset alone. Adding in the firm’s £13m cash balance provides a simplistic but fair valuation of around £35m, which would translate to a share price of just under 16p, compared to 12p at present.

Trap Oil’s other advantage is that it has a far more enticing set of prospects, discoveries and licences than Lochard, as I outlined in a recent post.

Although Trap has had its share of drilling disappointment over the last year, its stakes in Trent East Terrace, Surprise, Romeo and others should gradually add further value to the company, if some of them can be successfully appraised and shown to be commercial.

Although funding is going to continue to be a difficult area for small cap AIM firms, Trap’s finances are increasingly healthy and I believe it offers strong value at present. I’m going to continue to hold, with an initial target price of 16p.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for information only and is not intended as investment advice. The author may own shares in the companies mentioned in the article. Do your own research or seek qualified professional advice before making any purchase decisions.

Mid Cap Oil & Gas Roundup May 2013

A share tip circled in a newspaper share listingThe last fortnight has seen many of the mid-cap oil and gas E&P companies listed on the LSE provide interim updates to the market.

In theory, these companies offer investors an attractive middle ground between the high-octane, all-or-nothing risk of the small cap AIM oilers and the steady-as-she-goes dividend machines like BP and Shell.

In reality, this can often be true — mid-cap firms can deliver material gains more easily than supermajors, and can also make attractive takeover targets, because they offer material production, solid proven reserves and decent infrastructure to major players. At the same time, they are relatively affordable for major buyers, often more so than a major exploration campaign.

At present, many of these firms look attractively valued to me, so let’s take a look at some of the highlights from last week’s updates.

Heritage Oil

Heritage Oil (LON:HOIL) sank after its recent results, but its share price has started to recover, and I think the sell-off was overdone.

Last week’s interim management statement suggests I might have been right. Heritage reported that the industrial action and technical issues which had caused production to fall in the first quarter had largely been resolved, and that production is currently over 20,000 bopd per month.

The firm said that production was expected to rise above 35,000 bopd in the next few weeks and that 2013 gross production from OML 30, its Nigerian licence area, is expected to average 35,000 bopd. Heritage’s interest in the licence is 45%, so this should equate to around 15,000 bopd for the FTSE 250 firm, which should generate strong cash flow.

Heritage’s cash position also remains strong, at $184m, excluding the $400m+ restricted cash that is set aside for its Ugandan legal dispute. I was also pleased to note that the firm is refinancing its $500m bridge loan (used to pay for the acquisition of OML 30) with a more affordable reserve-based loan.

Afren

Afren (LON:AFR) keeps on delivering, and the company’s share price keeps on standing still!

Last quarter saw Afren’s working interest production rise to 47,064 boepd, a 14% increase from the same period last year, when the firm’s working interest production was 41,308 boepd.

A fall in the average realised oil price from $116 to $107 per barrel meant that post-tax profits for the quarter fell from $53m to $39m, but operating cash flow remained strong, dropping just 4% from $300m to $288m.

Although Afren’s Okoro and Ebok assets in Nigeria are decent enough in themselves, I think that the firm’s Barda Rash and Ain Sifni fields in Kurdistan offer transformational potential, if, and when, the Kurdistan explorers are able to start exporting oil on a commercial scale.

Afren is currently selling some of its Kurdish oil into the local market, providing useful cash flow, but this understates the potential value of these assets, as is the case with other Kurdish companies, like Genel Energy and of course Gulf Keystone Petroleum.

JKX Oil & Gas

After performing strongly for the last few months, JKX Oil & Gas (LON:JKX) share price has weakened since its interim update last week. I’m not sure I completely understand why.

Although production slipped in Q1, it doubled in April, suggesting that the Russia and Ukraine-based firm will continue to deliver to promise this year. Overall production was 6,884 boepd in Q1 (7,330 boepd Q1 2012), but it rose to 11,713 boepd in April 2013, and further improvements are planned for later this year.

The only weakness is that the production gains have come in Russia, where regulated gas prices are low — they averaged just $2.60/Mcf in 2012, and were reduced by 3% in the first quarter of this year.

Prices are much better in Ukraine, but production has been flat there so far this year, except for an increase in LPG production just after the end of the quarter, when a planned upgrade to JKX’s LPG plant was completed.

Gas and liquids production in Ukraine should improve later this year, as the company continues with its programme of new wells and a multi-stage frac on the Rudenkovskoye R-103 well.

Salamander Energy

Salamander Energy (LON:SMDR) is another of my favourite mid-cap oil and gas E&P companies, operating on and offshore in Thailand and Indonesia.

In its latest update, Salamander reported average group production of 14,100 boepd for the year to April 30th, and confirmed its annual forecast of 12,500 – 15,500 boepd. This compares to average annual production of 10,800 boepd last year, following the sale of some non-core assets towards the end of 2011.

Salamander has a busy drilling programme this year, made up of development and exploration wells. The firm said that the performance of eight new development wells completed and hooked up to its Bualuang Bravo platform was ‘ahead of expectations’ and that it was reviewing the reserve upside.

On the exploration front, its three-well North Kutei programme is looking good. Its first well, South Kecapi, was a decent discovery which flowed at 6,000 bopd under testing, while its second well, North Kendang, discovered high pressure wet gas before being suspended for safety reasons and later re-entry. The third well, Bedug-1, is currently being drilled.

Finally, the development of Salamander’s Kerendan gas field, onshore Indonesia, is also going well, with the development wells flowing gas at twice rate required for the initial Gas Sales Agreement and further prospects targeted.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for information only and is not intended as investment advice. The author may own shares in the companies mentioned in the article. Do your own research or seek qualified professional advice before making any purchase decisions.

Antrim Energy Slides 30% On Funding Woes

Oil rigs in North SeaSmall cap oil E&P company Antrim Energy (LON:AEY) has already disappointed investors once this year, when it abandoned its Fyne development in the North Sea at the very last minute.

Today’s interim results mark the second big disappointment. Despite booking oil revenues of $12m and cash flow from operations of $6.6m in the first quarter of this year, Antrim may soon run out of money.

Unsurprisingly, Antrim’s share price collapsed following the news, and is down 31% at 7.5p as I write — a massive 78% lower than it was at the start of the year.

What’s happened?

Last year, Antrim arranged a $30m payment swap transaction that should have enabled it to provide its share of the capital expenditure for the development of the Causeway field, in which it has a 35.5% interest.

The problem is that the firm is now in danger of losing access to that money, as Causeway production has been below expectations and Antrim’s lenders have tightened up their restrictions on how the money can be used.

In today’s report, Antrim explains that it may soon be unable to pay its bills:

The Company is working with the lender to reduce the impact of these additional
restrictions, however, there is no certainty that the funds will be made available which may cast further doubt on the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern. The restrictions may impact the Company’s ability to fund capital expenditure and operations.

Reading on, Antrim reveals that at 31 March 2013, it had accounts payable and accrued liabilities of $19.7m, and was committed to a further $2.4m of capital expenditure for Causeway this year.

To add some extra spice to the situation, it is currently disputing a $5m drilling invoice dating back to 2011, and is in dispute with the operator of the Fionn field  (Valiant Petroleum, now part of Ithaca Energy) over potential well decommissioning costs. In both cases, Antrim has made no provision for any possible payout.

To meet all of these obligations, Antrim Energy currently has just over $1m in unrestricted cash, plus whatever cash flow is coming in on a month-to-month basis — this averaged $2.2m per month in Q1.

It’s not looking good. If Antrim doesn’t manage to renegotiate its debt terms,then it will have to try to raise funds through new debt or an equity raise — neither of which seem very attractive, from an investment point of view.

If this fails, then the only option left might be a fire sale of its producing assets, which would probably meet its obligations, but would be unlikely to leave any value for shareholders.

What went wrong?

With hindsight, anyone (me included) who believed that Antrim Energy could raise the funding and deliver the operational capability needed to develop Fyne single-handed was optimistic, to say the least.

Having abandoned Fyne, I thought that Antrim might salvage something from the situation by  farming out its exploration prospects (as it has done) and generating some cash from Causeway and Cormorant East, in order to clear its debts and stabilise its finances.

It turns out that these production revenues will be too little, too late, given the scale of Antrim’s previous exploration losses, Causeway capex commitments and debt repayments: this too was probably foreseeable.

I’ve already sold my Antrim shares and avoided today’s slump, but what I should have done was to sell them the instant the firm abandoned Fyne — after all, that was the main reason I bought them. It’s a timely reminder that when investing in resource stocks, you have to have a clear idea of your investment thesis and be willing to take a loss as soon as it is invalidated.

Disclosure: Roland does not own shares in Antrim Energy.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for information only and is not intended as investment advice. Do your own research or seek qualified professional advice before making any purchase decisions.